Kyle Larson won last week. Regular readers of this column will remember that, last season, Larson entered almost every week as being the favorite and failed to deliver many times. What does this win mean for forecasting? Has the Next Gen car disruption of 2022 settled down and we’re back to almost normal?

Jeff: Our readers from last season certainly had to endure a lot of “Your guess is as good as ours!” type takes, which was reflective of a wildly unpredictable regular season. This year continues to show us how the top teams are back in form. Most weeks, it’s going to be a Hendrick Motorsports or Joe Gibbs Racing driver at the front, and then if they fail to capitalize perhaps it opens the door for another team to win. Talladega, of course, is different because there are probably 30 drivers who could win this week. But for most tracks, start with a Hendrick driver and go from there.

Jordan: Things have returned a bit to normal where there is a better understanding of who’s going to be good week to week rather than the parity that defined the 2023 season. So, yeah, the likes of Larson, Chase Elliott, William Byron, Christopher, Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. are names you should be expected to see contend for the win most weeks. And while he’s been a bit up and down this season, Tyler Reddick is another name that deserves to be on this list.

Did we learn anything from Chase Elliott’s return? Performance-wise?

Jeff: A top-10 after a six-week layoff is certainly a great first step (no pun intended) for Elliott. But we didn’t learn much, because we were already expecting him to perform well and win races anyway. He’ll be back in victory lane before too long, you’d think. Hendrick is just so good this year and Elliott knows how to get the most out of his cars.

Jordan: He’s going to be just fine and barring something unforeseen, you can go ahead and pencil him in for a playoff spot. All he needs to do is win one of the remaining 17 regular season races to punch his ticket, which is a very attainable goal for a driver of his ability and with a premier organization like Hendrick. In fact, it’s worth noting that the next two races are on two tracks, Talladega and Dover, where Elliott won a year ago. Just saying.

Chase Briscoe has two top-five finishes in a row now. And he’s done it on two different style tracks. What should we read into this going forward? He’s still only 15th in Jordan’s tiers.

Jeff: I wouldn’t get too excited about the Stewart-Haas Racing cars yet until they show they can perform well on a consistent basis. Briscoe had two good races after breaking his finger (which was surgically repaired on Monday morning), but that doesn’t mean he’ll go to Dover next week and suddenly run top-five again. Kevin Harvick is the one SHR car where you could regularly put money on him in hopes of a win, but he’s also gone to victory lane just twice in the past two-plus seasons now.

Jordan: After a dreadful start to the season, Briscoe has turned the corner and there are reasons to believe he’s going to be a factor on a more regular basis. That is of course dependent on whether SHR can provide him with fast cars, something the organization has struggled to do for its drivers outside of Harvick. If the cars have speed, Briscoe can win.

Who’s an underdog we like this week?

Jeff: Talladega is certainly fertile ground for upset winners, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. just won at Daytona earlier this season. But there’s a reason no driver has better than +1000 odds as of this writing: It’s damn hard to forecast a superspeedway winner. Not a single active driver with multiple Talladega starts has an average finish better than 14th there. That said, if you’re looking for an underdog type, I’ll keep riding the Justin Haley superspeedway train until proven right. He’s +5000 – but he’d be among my top 20 picks to win.

Jordan: Chris Buescher is at +2200, good value for a driver who Hamlin said is one of the best current drivers on superspeedways. Buescher winning Sunday would not be an upset at all, so getting him at that number brings a nice return. Other “underdogs” to consider: Aric Almirola (+2500), Austin Dillon (+2500), Michael McDowell (+5000), Justin Haley (+5000), and Corey LaJoie (+6000). If you’re feeling ambitious, pick a couple of these guys to throw a few bucks and hope for the best.

In our fascination with the Truck Series, we’ve kind of left Xfinity out to dry a little. Looking at the odds for the eventual champ, it’s tight – but should we consider our old friend Josh Berry? Now that he’s no longer filling in for Elliott, will that focus him more on the Xfinity circuit?

Jeff: Personally, I don’t think it’s worth tying up any money in NASCAR championship futures for any series. The championship format is way too unpredictable and you’re not going to find any sort of amazing value where the champion comes out of nowhere from this point in the season. And in the lower series in particular, it’s even more difficult to forecast because many of those drivers are a work in progress. Your best bet, literally, is to focus on head-to-head matchups in the race and try to get lucky on a winner every few weeks.

Jordan: Although Berry is winless on the season, he’s ran up front most weeks and why he’s yet to win is more due to bad luck and circumstances beyond his control than anything he’s doing wrong. He’s very capable of going on a heater where he tallies multiple victories over a few week span.

NOOB QUESTION OF THE WEEK: We’re at Talladega, and even people with zero NASCAR knowledge know “Talladega Nights” – what is the absolute cringiest line/joke you’ll hear incessantly all week?

Jeff: It seems “If you ain’t first, you’re last” is a bit overused, but I don’t mind it. “Shake and Bake” is totally OK with me, too. Personally, I have a soft spot for “Talladega Nights.” There are some in the NASCAR industry who dislike it and felt it was too mocking, but I thought it was a pretty good send-up of the NASCAR world. It also came out at the height of NASCAR’s popularity and is a fun reminder of that time (it doesn’t hurt that I got to attend the Hollywood premiere, which still ranks as a career highlight).

Jordan: “Talladega Nights” and “Days of Thunder” are the two most oft quoted NASCAR-themed movies is the garage – understandably so considering their mainstream popularity. So just about any line from either movie is going to get a positive reaction no matter how many times you’ve heard it. This is a long winded way of saying I’ve learned to just roll with it whenever someone recites a line.

GEICO 500 odds

(Top photo: Chris Graythen/Getty Images; photo of Will Ferrell: Rusty Jarrett/Getty Images for NASCAR)

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