Some teams are about to play their final season in their respective conferences, and you have questions …
Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.
Hi, Andy. This season will be the last run for Texas, Oklahoma, USC, and UCLA in their current conferences. Several questions after spring practice and the transfer portal: Are any schools taking a win-now approach, essentially planning on dominating the conference on the way out the door? Which school has already shifted to building toward their new conference home? Out of the four, who’s about to face some harsh reality when they do switch? Lastly, whose fan base should be most excited about leaving? — Michael
It’s safe to say that all four are taking a win-now approach. The attitude at Oklahoma is always win-now. Texas always wants to win now, but the Longhorns often can’t get out of their own way. Still, this particular Texas team looks like the most talented in the Big 12 at the moment. (Read my next answer for more on that.) UCLA just finished its best season since Chip Kelly took over in 2018. USC, meanwhile, has the reigning Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback and was in the College Football Playoff race last year until it lost the Pac-12 title game.
So yes, all four want to win now.
The other questions are more nuanced.
The schools that seem to be most explicitly building toward their new conference homes are Oklahoma, Texas and USC. UCLA seems to be recruiting in a similar fashion to previous years with the glaring exception of landing five-star quarterback Dante Moore, a Detroit native who should feel quite comfortable playing in Big Ten country. (Also, don’t be shocked if Ball State transfer running back Carson Steele gobbles up some of the yards left behind by the loss of Zach Charbonnet to the draft.)
While we don’t yet know if Brent Venables can do the job to Oklahoma’s satisfaction on the field, he seems capable of building the Sooners an SEC roster. Oklahoma finished fourth in the nation in the 247Sports Composite team rankings for the Class of 2023. The Sooners landed the player everyone believes is their quarterback of the future (Jackson Arnold) and six other top-100 players. Venables’ history at Clemson — where he helped build rosters that beat Alabama in the College Football Playoff — suggests he knows exactly what a team that can beat the SEC’s best needs on the line of scrimmage. That’s important because the coaches who don’t understand how those rosters must look have no chance of success.
Steve Sarkisian was Alabama’s offensive coordinator before he became the Longhorns’ coach, so he also knows exactly how the roster is supposed to look. His last two recruiting classes bear that out. The 2022 class was heavy on offensive linemen who were sought after by excellent programs. Left tackle Kelvin Banks is already a star, and guards Cole Hutson, DJ Campbell and Neto Umeozulu might all have big roles by the time the Longhorns reach the SEC. The 2023 class was headlined by QB Arch Manning, but the more likely early contributors are tailback Cedric Baxter Jr. and receiver Johntay Cook.
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I’ve lobbed a fair share of criticism at USC coach Lincoln Riley for not acquiring as much talent as he should have on defense while with the Trojans and with Oklahoma, but this offseason has shown Riley is serious about upgrading that side of the ball. It would be easy to say that’s being done to be competitive in the Big Ten, but that also might give the Trojans a chance to win the deepest Pac-12 in years in 2023. USC just got former Georgia defensive tackle Bear Alexander out of the transfer portal, and he joins Anthony Lucas (Texas A&M), Jack Sullivan (Purdue) and Kyon Barrs (Arizona) on a defensive line that will look a lot more like the ones on the teams at the top of the Big Ten. This was critical for USC going into a league where they’ll have to face Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin. But it also could provide the added benefit of making the Trojans tougher for some excellent versions of Oregon, Oregon State, UCLA, Utah and Washington to deal with this season.
All of them should expect a harsh welcome in their new leagues. Simply put, they’re deeper and contain more elite competition at the top. That said, I don’t think that just because these teams haven’t been playing in those leagues means they’re doomed to a lack of success. Oklahoma, for example, has been good for most of its history. It is the type of program that can adjust to a change in the level of competition. Meanwhile, Texas and USC — which are similar in that they should have every advantage but have had prolonged periods of frustration — should always be capable of putting together rosters that can compete with anyone.
But the new reality won’t sink in for a few months. There is still football to be played in the old conferences, and these four all enter 2023 with big expectations.
“Bo felt like he had some unfinished business that he wanted to take care of.”@oregonfootball coach Dan Lanning joins the latest @Andy_Staples Show to discuss his quarterback Bo Nix retuning to Eugene this season.
Apple: https://t.co/TVd4KAlAqe
YouTube: https://t.co/IhJsfvLmW8 pic.twitter.com/KovdnEnBm9— The Athletic CFB (@TheAthleticCFB) May 2, 2023
Does Texas really have the best roster in college football like Urban Meyer said? It sounds crazy since it’s Texas, but is there really another program whose roster you can look at and guarantee that it’s better? — Dylan
Georgia’s roster is better. Ohio State’s roster is better. Wow, that was easy.
Obvious answers aside, Texas has upgraded its roster considerably. There aren’t many programs I can name off the top of my head that definitively have a better roster than the Longhorns.
Left tackle Banks looks like a future first-rounder, and he’s only a sophomore. Xavier Worthy and Georgia transfer A.D. Mitchell should lead an explosive receiving corps. If we include tight end JT Sanders — possibly the Longhorns’ best 2024 NFL draft prospect — in the group, it gets even deeper. (And remember, 2022 Wyoming transfer Isaiah Neyor never got to show what he could do last season because of an injury suffered in preseason camp. He’s back, too.)
At quarterback, Quinn Ewers showed flashes against Alabama of what he might be, but he was inconsistent after coming back from injury. Still, he’ll either grow into a competent starter or get passed by redshirt freshman Maalik Murphy, who could have left after spring practice and started this season at several places. There’s also Manning, but Ewers and Murphy seem much more ready to contribute now. In other words, it’s possible the Longhorns have multiple future NFL QBs on the roster. That hasn’t been the case lately.
Defense is where Texas doesn’t seem quite as deep as the programs that currently compete for national titles. Georgia can lose a former five-star defensive tackle recruit who contributed as a freshman (Bear Alexander) to USC through the transfer portal and not shed a tear. The Bulldogs have four interior veterans (Zion Logue, Nazir Stackhouse, Jonathan Jefferson, Christen Miller) they’d be comfortable playing with if the national title game were tomorrow, and they still may need to find snaps for five-star freshman Jordan Hall.
Imagine taking T’Vondre Sweat or Byron Murphy off the interior of the Longhorns’ defensive line. Would you be confident that Texas could have a dominant (or effective) four-man rotation between nose tackle and three-technique defensive tackle without one of those two? Maybe you would. Alfred Collins has been waiting for a chance to be a full-time starter, and the 6-foot-5, 313-pounder has NFL size and traits. But it’s not as sure a thing as it would be at the schools that have been stockpiling and developing future NFL players.
But yes, Texas has a roster that looks more competitive than any Texas roster has looked in years. Does that mean the Longhorns are back? We’ll leave such declarations to Meyer for now, but let’s just say the optimism is understandable.
In Stewart Mandel’s post-spring Top 25, a “loaded” LSU team comes in at No. 2 . A team that dismantled LSU in the final regular season game and returns 19 of 22 starters, Texas A&M, doesn’t show up in it at all. What is more likely in 2023, LSU falls back to the middle of the SEC West pack or A&M challenges for the SEC West title? — Dave
Dave asked this same question of Stewart, who replied that he’d still take LSU challenging for the SEC West title.
The most likely outcome to me is that LSU winds up winning or challenging for the SEC West title and Texas A&M is improved but not improved enough to win the West.
I was in Tuscaloosa last year when the Aggies had a play near the goal line in the closing seconds with a chance to beat Alabama. (I even caught a pass from Haynes King on that final drive.) I watched the aforementioned win against LSU from start to finish and remembered being surprised but not shocked. Texas A&M had improved since making Conner Weigman the starting QB, and LSU had clinched the SEC West crown two weeks earlier with a narrow escape at Arkansas. The Tigers didn’t look dominant for much of the season, and they were far more incentivized to worry about the SEC title game the following week.
From a top-end talent standpoint, Texas A&M absolutely should be able to compete with Alabama and LSU for the West title. If we lined up each team’s starting 22 in blank uniforms, it would be difficult to distinguish which was which. The question is what would happen if some of the backups had to play? Offensive line injuries — combined with coach Jimbo Fisher choosing the wrong quarterback in preseason camp — cost Texas A&M some wins. Alabama, which had to start its backup QB when it beat the Aggies last year, is still deeper. We’ll see whether LSU is. The Tigers probably weren’t any deeper than the Aggies last season, which could be a reason why we saw so much variability in performance from LSU. The team that beat Alabama didn’t look like the team that got clobbered at home by Tennessee or the team that lost at Kyle Field. It stands to reason that the roster will have fewer holes in Brian Kelly’s second season than it had in Kelly’s first, but we probably won’t know that for sure until we’ve watched LSU play a few games.
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Mandel’s post-spring Too Early Top 25
So why would I pick LSU to fare better when I’ve just spent two paragraphs explaining why the programs are similar? Recent history. With the exception of the pandemic season, Texas A&M has not distinguished itself in SEC play under Fisher. Meanwhile, even if we throw out Kelly’s College Football Playoff appearance at Notre Dame in 2020, he still has another CFP appearance in 2018 and 11-win seasons in 2019 and 2021. And now he’s at a place where it’s much easier to assemble a deep, talented roster than the place he coached when he won all those games.
Basically, I need Fisher to win the games against teams like Ole Miss, Auburn and South Carolina before I start penciling the Aggies in as contenders for the conference title. Everyone has faith that Kelly and Nick Saban’s teams will win such games, which is why they’re being predicted as the two that will compete for the division title.
Fisher has the necessary talent to compete. He just has to show us he can deploy it in a way that keeps him from losing to less-talented rosters.
A Random Ranking
Dolly Parton has announced a covers album called Rockstar that will drop in November. If you wanted to understand how much juice Dolly has, all you need to know is this: She’s covering “Let It Be,” and Paul McCartney and Ringo Starr are helping. (And so are Mick Fleetwood and Peter Frampton.) This is going to be a 30-track album, and I can’t wait to hear it. But I’m hoping Dolly can help a little with Track 24. It’s a cover of “What’s Up” by 4 Non Blondes with help from 4 Non Blondes singer Linda Perry.
I’m so excited for this even though it has one of the worst songs ever recorded as track 24. https://t.co/ZYDo0gVBSS
— Andy Staples (@Andy_Staples) May 10, 2023
I am not exaggerating when I say that “What’s Up” is my least favorite song in the history of music. It makes nails on a chalkboard sound like Mozart. I have nothing against Perry, who went on to write or co-write several songs I absolutely love. This one just hits me in the wrong place.
So in honor of Dolly including “What’s Up,” I decided to rank my 10 least favorite songs. In most cases, I love other songs in these artists’ catalogs. These particular songs just drive me crazy. And no, the Fine Young Cannibals’ “She Drives Me Crazy” didn’t make the list. That one is a banger.
1. “What’s Up” — 4 Non Blondes
2. “Another Day in Paradise” — Phil Collins
3. “The Sign” — Ace of Base
4. “Photograph” — Nickelback
5. “Shiny Happy People” — R.E.M.
6. “Are You That Somebody?” — Aaliyah (strictly because of the cooing baby sound)
7. “All I Wanna Do Is Make Love To You” — Heart
8. “Macarena” — Los Del Rio
9. “Informer” — Snow
10. “All Mixed Up” — 311
(Photo: Scott Wachter / USA Today)